Question: What impact will Covid-19 have on the real estate market? Will it change the way sellers, buyers and agents interact going forward?

Answer: This is a tricky question at the moment. We have to adjust our way of doing business day-by-day, just like everyone else. Currently, real estate does fall under the critical category. People do need to move and that involves many other industries, such as inspectors, appraisers, movers, contractors, lenders, and title companies. I have been following many of the leading economists lately and they are all echoing the same sentiment: We came into this crisis with a very strong real estate market, the shorter the crisis, which they believe it will be, the more likely we will have a very robust 3rd quarter. This virus spread fast and made a big impact but may be gone before an actual financial recession, like in 2008. This was not caused by subprime loans, this is a pandemic. Yes, there will be some fall out, but no one at this moment has lost 30% of their home value. Home prices are holding strong. We are still in an active market here in Colorado.  

In regard to how doing business will change, like anything we are adjusting. I had three closings last week where the sellers were able to sign their documents by e-signature or at the windows of their own cars. I am hearing lenders are working towards remote signatures, as well. The title companies are asking agents not to attend closings and are only allowing two or three people in a room (of course with Purell on the table, a new pen and sitting 6 feet away from each other). Photographers are asking that we do not meet them at the property, but to leave all lights on because they will not touch the light switches. Many of these changes are good. It is about time we have all documents available online and signed via the internet.  It saves a lot of paper and time.  

As far as physical showings, we have seen a slowdown. A lot of them are now “Virtual Showings”. Vacant homes are much easier and more comfortable to show.  At my office, Kentwood Cherry Creek, we have put kits in each home with hand sanitizer, booties and have asked people not to touch doorknobs, handles, etc. There are now addendums we are attaching to contracts which allows more flexibility because dates might need to be adjusted based on the current circumstances. It is a new world and we are all adjusting. I do believe some of the changes will stick after this crisis is over and for good reason.

Question: Is Denver a buyer’s or sellers’ market right now? In addition, what is your outlook for interest rates going forward?

Answer: Experts say to figure out if we are in a buyer’s or seller’s market, it is based on a 6 month inventory. In other words, if no more homes come on the market, how long would it take to sell the inventory? As of this minute there are 8,700 homes, single family, condos, etc. on the market and in the last 3 months we’ve sold over 13,000 homes and that was dead of winter! Therefore, it is likely we would have the 8,700 homes sold in no time, which makes it very much a seller’s market. 

Regarding interest rates, they are incredible right now. They have been all over the board, but that is starting to calm down. The CARES act was just passed and that should help that effort. I have closed several loans in the last month in the 3.25%-3.75%. These are great rates and they allow people much more buying power.

Jacci’s Final Thoughts:

The bottom line is, we came into this crisis with a very strong market and we will come out even stronger. I mean this metaphorically and financially. People are realizing how much their home means to them. Of course, this pandemic has created uncertainty and you should not put yourself in a risky position. However, if you are secure in your job, it is a great time to buy with great rates, less buyers to compete with and sellers that are ready to move. We are also realizing what matters to us most and are learning how to adjust our sails in a different direction with the new winds. Maybe this will be our finest hour. I know everyone in the real estate industry that I have worked with has been professional, careful and extremely optimistic that this too shall pass.

What Does This Mean for You?

Although sometimes it may feel like it, this market pullback will not last forever. The term recession has been tossed around a lot lately. By definition, a recession entails two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We likely won’t know if this period of time will be classified as a recession until October of this year—and by that point we may have seen the worst of it. That is because on average, recessions span 11 months. We will continue to see volatility in the markets until the Coronavirus curve begins to flatten and the markets begin to regain confidence. We will not understand the true economic impact of COVID-19 until we know the severity and length of the outbreak.

Timing the markets is seemingly impossible but as history shows, once the markets rebound from the “bottom”, we can witness dramatic returns. The chart below illustrates the length and severity of several bear markets, followed by their 1, 3 and 5-year market returns.

What is SH&J Doing?

Heading into 2020, there were two investing themes: we were entering into the eleventh year of the longest running bull market and the U.S. has an upcoming election. Knowing election years tend to experience increased volatility, our Investment Committee worked to rebalance portfolios to be more defensive. All portfolios are unique and constructed to fit each client’s specific circumstances, however, one example of a defensive strategy that we have utilized is minimizing exposure to high-yield bonds, which tend to move like stocks in time of volatility. In the last few weeks, as uncertainty increased, another strategy has included decreasing exposure to small and mid-sized companies and international equities in portfolios when appropriate. In times of prolonged market drawdowns, these asset classes are usually hit the hardest and slower to recover. We will be looking for opportunities with the cash we raised as markets begin to stabilize.

What Should You be Doing?

The welfare, health and safety of our clients, employees and families are of the utmost importance to us here at SH&J. Please, take this time to embrace social distancing and prioritize you and your family’s health. We want to say a special thanks to our clients and their family members who are medical professionals, store clerks, and all those providing essential care to others in this time of need. Know that we are continually monitoring client portfolios so that you can focus on you and your family’s health and well-being.

Rest assured, our team is here for you during these uncertain times. We will be conducting business as usual, monitoring the markets and your portfolios closely. Our goal is to provide continued and uninterrupted service to our clients, while maintaining the safety and well-being of our clients, employees and families. We cannot wait to meet with you face-to-face again soon.