Inside the Economy with SH&J: ISM Numbers & Inflation

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On this week’s Inside the Economy, we discuss the recent ISM (Institute of Supply Management) numbers. The numbers indicate slowing in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Is the rest of the U.S. economy starting to contract as well? What affect does all of this have on worker’s wages? We are now starting to see how tariffs are beginning to impact the U.S. consumer. Will the tariffs have an effect on inflation too? Tune in to find out the answers to these questions and more!

Market Insights & Commentary

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The summer months are a historically dull time in the stock markets. This is a time when many of the powerful fund managers and traders take their vacations and there isn’t a whole lot of activity going on. The summer of 2019 has been different, however, as there have been a multitude of headlines that have moved the markets in both directions.

The topic that has ruled the headlines this summer has been the continuing trade talks with China. All year long there has been constant back and forth between President Trump and President Xi threatening each other’s economies with tariffs. This uncertainty is putting a strain on the global supply chain, causing stock market investors to be weary. The U.S. and China are still in discussions on what a trade deal could look like, but until that comes to fruition expect more ups and downs in global stock markets.

International stocks saw a nice rebound the first 5 months of the year, as the EAFE index (tracks large company stocks in Europe, Australia, Asia, and the Far East) was closely tracking the performance of U.S. markets. There has been a divergence over the past 3 months, however, mainly due to the bleak economic data coming out of the European Union. Europe may already be in a minor recession.

All the chatter surrounding tariffs and a global economic slowdown has seen investors flee for safety this past summer. When investors get spooked by the stock markets, they put their money in long-dated bonds. This demand for longer maturity bonds drives bond prices up, thus lowering the yield. When shorter term bonds are yielding more than longer term bonds, it’s called a yield curve inversion. This inversion has historically been a recessionary signal.

So where do we go from here? When you peel back all of the headlines surrounding the stock market and look at the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, there seems to be no sign of a recession in the near term for the U.S. 75% of S&P 500 companies beat their Q2 earnings estimates, unemployment remains around 4%, and the U.S. Consumer Confidence index remains high. A recession may take up to two years to manifest after an inversion, and on average the stock market advances another 13% before the recession. Going into an election year, these next 3 months are sure to be another bumpy ride in the stock market. As long as investors know how much risk they are taking in their portfolios, no outcome should come as a surprise. Contact Sharkey, Howes & Javer

Inside The Economy with SH&J: PMI Numbers & Household Debt

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On this week’s Inside the Economy with SH&J, we discuss the recent Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers. The manufacturing numbers have been in a downward trend for about a year now. How close are we to seeing these numbers signal a contraction in manufacturing? Has the change in interest rates had any effect on the U.S. dollar? The total household debt in the U.S. is about 100% of net disposable income. How does this compare to other countries around the world? Tune in to find out!

Why You Should Invest in a Financial Advisor

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Are you starting to feel under the weather? Search your symptoms on WebMD. Need to talk through an emotional issue with a licensed professional? You can now text an online therapist. Have a few extra dollars and need help investing in the markets? Hire a “robo advisor”. Thanks to the evolution of technology, advice is more accessible than ever. With many inexpensive options for investing, why should you invest in a traditional financial advisor?

 

The role of a financial advisor has progressed tremendously over the last 50 years. Advisors used to specialize in one aspect of your financial life. Your financial advisor could’ve been your stockbroker who assisted in managing your investment portfolio, or they could’ve been an insurance agent who you bought life insurance from. Today, you can hire a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ who will provide you comprehensive financial planning.

While investment management is part of your overall financial picture, it is only one component. Advisors now provide additional value by acting as an ally to clients during major life decisions that may create financial stress. Barron’s reports that the industry average cost for financial advice is 1% of assets under management. By working to control behavioral tendencies of the average investor and coaching clients through pivotal times, advisors as a whole can be worth the fees. According to a study done by Vanguard, advisors who follow best practices in wealth management can add an additional 3% in net returns over the long term, with half of that coming from behavioral coaching.

Investing is an emotional activity. Whether derived from fear, greed, or past experiences with finances, most investors have an emotional tie to money. Financial experts can work with you to keep these emotions at bay, while staying focused on your goals and identifying hidden risks along the way. A good financial advisor will provide a roadmap for your financial goals and keep you motivated to achieve them.

Are you or a loved one interested in working with a financial advisor? Contact Sharkey, Howes & Javer today to speak with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™. We’ll work with you to align life goals with financial realities through financial planning and investment management.